ANALYSIS AND INTEGRATION OF MASS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM IN A METROPOLITAN CITY

Abstract

There have been rapid changes in the pattern of traffic in Indian cities in the recent past. The change in policy of the government towards manufacture of motorised two wheelers and introduction of fuel efficient cars in the market have caused flooding of more private vehicles on the roads. This has resulted in more congestion and air pollution. The travel cost and time of travel do not appear to be the only factors that now govern choice of mode. Users attitudes towards various travel attributes appear to play a major part in choosing the mode of travel. It is evident that rail based mass rapid transit systems have a role to play in the urban transport system. In view of high investments, a realistic appraisal taking into consideration various costs involved, is necessary. The growth of registered motor vehicles in Delhi has been increased from 0.24 million in 1970 AD to around 2.5 million (July, 1996 AD). One can imagine as to how much would be the congestion level on roads, when there would be such a growth of vehicles. It has been fully recognised by planners and engineers that solution lies in developing mass rapid transit facilities in the major cities. But the high initial costs involved in developing them and the difficulty in meeting the operation and renewal costs by fare box only has been the dividend in large for development of such facilities. This calls for an in-depth study of alternative forms of mass transit systems, their capacities, costs and economics in the Indian context so that a proper mix can be arrived at for each city. Delhi, is the third largest metropolitan city in India proposed with three MRTS corridors. In this study these three proposed MRTS corridors of Delhi have been considered for detailed analysis. Study of modal choice of urban commuters in depth has been receiving attention in developed countries since early sixties. They have been concentrating on development of disaggregate utility models and of late have been considering the need for study into the 'stated preference' of users. The study of attitude of commuters thus gains importance. No detailed studies in depth in this respect appears to have been done in Indian context. Different methodologies available for mode choice analysis have been tried in the context of Delhi city. The trend of change in mode choice in the city has been studied and the applicability of different methodologies have been analysed. People's attitude towards choice of alternatives can be best studied using behavioural science techniques. Two methodologies have been tried viz., attitude survey and trade-off technique. A detailed attitude survey carried out amongst a sample of 605 commuters hailing from different areas in Delhi has brought out the following : (i) Attitude of commuters towards travel attributes are not very much influenced by the characteristics of the places of residence. To some extent social status has a limited influence. To a larger extent, accessibility has a greater influence. (ii) People attach different values of importance to various travel attributes depending on trip purpose. All commuter groups consider travel time as the most important for work trips, education and entertainment trips. Travel cost generally takes the second place and comfort or safety in travel the third place. (iii) Attitude value being a stated preference, using it in conjunction with other variables would be a desirable approach to understand more logically the behaviour of commuters in selecting the mode. (ii) The two approaches made use of, are : Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Multi- Nomial Logit (MNL) models. Out of the two, the MNLmodel is found to be more acceptable and considered as a better approach by many planners for mode choice analysis, since it accounts for the behaviour of users at individual's level. As one of the main objective, development of models for mode choice analysis based on behavioural science technique has been undertaken and applied to examine their suitability to Indian conditions, for future estimations. It is in this context that the various models developed have been tested for a selected area (Shahdara) in Delhi City of India. Shahdara in Delhi has been chosen to study the applicability of the models derived. The area selected has access to both road and rail facility. The proposed MRTS in Delhi will pass through this area by 2001 AD, and would link this area directly to CBD and number of important work centres. Introduction of MRTS has been found to cause a shift of 11.5% from bus, 2.4% from motorised two wheelers, 3.5% from Car and 8% from bicycle trips to train and MRTS increasing its share by 25.4%. It has shown that the results obtained from the model are fairly close to the desires expressed by the people. Trade-off game is considered as a better approach since it overcomes an inherent defect found in other types of opinion surveys which are conducted in a condition of 'no constraint'. A trade-off game has been conducted to assess the relative importance they attach to different travel attributes while choosing a mode for his travel. Scales of importance as expressed by them in both 'unconstrained' and 'constrained' conditions have been constructed. The trade-off game results analysed can be used to work out the percentage of commuters using a particular mode that would shift to an improved or a new form of transport when levels-of-service of certain attributes are improved. The trade-off game study covers 12 travel attributes. These attributes have been studied under 5 to 7 (iii) levels-of-service. The results of the trade-off study have been used to estimate how the share of various modes would undergo changes when MRTS is introduced in a selected area. The capital costs estimate of the mass rapid transit system projects are based on the unit rates for various elements of the project. These have been calculated on the basis of schedule of rates of Indian Railways, Calcutta Metro and Metropolitan Transport Project (Railways) Madras and is duly adjusted to the year 1996 AD, so as to represent cost of facilities if provided at respective percentage rates as adopted by the Indian Railways. The operating expenses estimate of the MRTS projects have been worked out using the data collected from various departments of Southern Railway and MTP (Railways) Madras in the year 1993 AD and using prevalent rates of payment. The operating expenses are duly adjusted in the year 1996 AD so as to represent cost of facilities if provided now. Financial analysis by 'Annual Rate of Return' (ARR) method has been done for the year 2001 AD at three different scenarios of monthly season ticket fare and at projected daily ticket fare in the year 2001 AD. At the current projected fare structure in the scenario 1, the MRTS sections are not able to meet even, day-to-day expenditure. This indicates that metro section is not financially viable at three different scenarios of monthly season ticket fare and also at projected daily ticket fare. In the scenario 3, fare structure, the Metro section is able to meet its operating cost including depreciation. The analysis indicates that a metro system which is fully used would be viable, if the cost of provision of initial infrastructure facilities are not considered, as in the case of a road transport facility where cost of provision and maintenance of road is borne by the state government, the other tangible benefits are saving in energy and less pollution. It is considered that the fare structure should be such that the fare box meets operational cost including replacement cost. It should be delinked from inter city fare structure. (iv) Economic analysis has been done separately for all the three MRTS corridors. Economic analysis indicates that the MRTS section will be economically viable if MRTS sections are at grade or an elevated. For the particular case of a Shahdara-Nangloi MRTS section, which is 17.7 km an elevated and 7.3 km at-grade has resulted in B:C ratio of 1.15 . Whereas Subzi Mandi-Holambi Kalan MRTS section which is 4.45 km an elevated and 14.85 km at-grade has resulted in B:C ratio of 1.23. Vishwavidyalaya-Central Secretariat Metro Section which is fully underground has resulted in B:C ratio of 0.63. The justification for urban railway projects should not be looked at merely on the grounds of commercial profitability. In such instances, it is very important to assess also the socio-economic implications of the projects. Urban railway projects have a significant impact on the society which would result the maximum possible benefit to the present and future generations, in the use of a particular case of fully utilised line the B:C radio exceeds 1.1 even without considering other benefits. The technique of cost-benefit analysis is an aid in assessing the desirability and viability of urban railway projects from the point of view of overall development of the society. It is therefore considered that, wherever possible, the MRTS should be at-grade or an elevated.