SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING

Abstract

Considerable work has been carried out in recent years on problem concerned with load flow analysis,economie generation scheduling and system-security checking in electrical power systems. An aspect of the overall problem which has not received much attention is that of short term forecasting of electrical load demand. It is, however, important from the practical point of view of economic generation scheduling and security checking to be able to predict accurately load demand several 1 urs in advance. In this report various methods which are commonly used for short-term load prediction are discussed in Chapter--2 along with their relative merits,. The methodb d = ref. [5] which has been adopted for probabilistic forecasting of hozrly power-system loads with a lead time varying from 24-hours to one week, has been included in Chapter-.3 along with. necessaf°y flow charts for developing computer programs. The forecasting is based on both historical load data and information from latest weather forecast. The developed program combines stochastic load model and adaptive weather load models optimally to yiald an adaptive forecast especially suited for on line control of power systems. Adaptive capa-bility in this context is taken to be ability of the model to update its own parameters according to its past perfor-mance, a feature that makes the forecasting procedure particularly suitable for on-line use.