PROBIT ANALYSIS FOR INTER-CITY TRAVEL DEMAND

Abstract

Travel demand is a complex behavioural process and involves the interaction of transportation with spatial distribution of activities. The increase in population, industry and other activities have resulted in increased travel demand and hence successively increased allocations of funds for roads, road transport and railways. Therefore, it is necessary that the optimum uce of existing transport facilities is made. This in turn requires the knowledge of existing modal-split and the peoples travel behaviour. This study has been carried out for intercity travel in the Sahaxonpur district of Uttar Pradesh. Four intc_r.L:.t pairs have been considered and a binary choice situation between bus end rail or intermediate public transit have been taken into account to analyse the peoples' behaviour, in order to be more specific the population has broadly been classified as urban end rural. The urban population has further been subdivided in three categories namely business, service and others. The pc renetexs in vehicle time, out of vehicle times and travel costs of both the modes have been selected to describe the mode-choice behaviour of individuals. The mathematical tool used is probit analysis, Various parameters of probit model have been estimated with the aid of computer program Probit Regression lines for all population groups have been drawn. Similarly normal sir >i,-' curves showing the variation of probability of choosing bus against the generalized cost difference have been presented. An attempt has also been made to predict peoples travel behaviour when the system attributes are changed. The potentiality of behavioural modal split model like probit model lies in the fact that these are policy oriented and can be made geographically transferable. The results of this study cpn . be useful for transport and pl:n-ning authorities for future developments,