QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTIES IN PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Abstract

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is an important process to find hazards at given site. The reliability of its results is therefore very important. But with so many uncertainties involved in earthquakes and the calculations, involved in carrying out PSHA, it is important to deal with these uncertainties rationally. In the present study Epistemic uncertainties are studied at two steps, one in the calculation of seismic recurrence parameters and second in the attenuation relationship. Three methods, which were described in chapter 3, were used to compute seismic recurrence parameters and two different attenuation relationships by Abrahamson and Silva (1997) and Sadigh et. al.(1997) were used to compute seismic hazard at Dehradun. The results are plotted and compared in chapter 5. The results shows that the changes in inputs obtained from different procedure results in large changes in the value of final results.