ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES DATA IN INDIAN DOMESTIC AIR TRANSPORTATION MARKET

Abstract

Time series data on supply and demand in Indian Domestic Air Transportation market has been analysed through Box-Jenkins method. Available seat-kilometres as production variable-, revenue passenger-kilometres and number of passengers transported on demand side have been considered in the analysis. Data for the years 1979 to 1993 has been explored to identify the pattern of demand in terms of trend and periodicity. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) of order (2,2) have been developed for these cases. The variation of 5 to 8 percent in estimated and observed data points supported by statistical checks provided high level of confidence in the developed models. The abrupt change in the data series due to the introduction of private air taxis revealed high variations between the actual and estimated values of variables. The industry has periodicity of nine years and strong trend.