DEVELOPMENT OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING OF HARDWAR CITY

Abstract

Hardwar is an ancient pilgrim and tourist city. It is the starting point of Yatra viz. Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri and Yamunotri for Hindus and Hem Kund sahib for sikh community , popularly called Hari-ka-dwar. The river Ganges after flowing for about 213 kilometers in Himalayan valleys enti to plain areas at Hardwar. In the east of Hardwar the river Ganges flows and in the west is Shivalik hill ranges, and hence Hardwar is confined between these two natural boundaries. In the north Hardwar is confined due to Distict Boundaries. With the installation of BHEL in sixtees rapid growth of population and other related activities, it has been noted that hectic development of Hardwar is taking Aar m voigult Ganges and Shivalik hill ranges, which is a part of Rajaji national park, the two ecologically sensitive areas have been affected. As well due to the pollution of the river Ganges the feeling of pilgrimages are being hurted. To check the hectic development of the city which comprises of Hardwar, Kankhal,BHEL township and Jwalapur townships. Hardwar Development Authority in its ambitious development plannings has included the Bahadrabad township, and proposes to increase the total area of Hardwar from 1386 hactares to 5417 hectares, Therefore the executive decisions for the development of the city should be taken in the light of environmental impacts of the development. Hence a decision support system is required. iv Efforts have been made in the present work to develop a decision support system,by Trouping the environmental attributes, using the various attributes, delineating them in a manner that they are easily measurable and capable of reflecting the environmental impacts. On the basis of selected attributes efftas/ts have been made to develop the decision support indices. To calcutate the indices, forecasting of population, the rainfall, the discharge of river Ganges and water table fluctuations etc are required. The parameters showing a stationary or similar trend,a mathematical model for forecasting has been done on the basis of polynomial curve fitting. The parameters which are non-stationary i.e. which changes with time, have been analyzed using time series analysis, and mathematical models, have been proposed. The parameter which is affected by more tham one variable, the mathematical model has been developed using regression technique. Using the decision support indices, changes in the proposed development plan of Hardwar city have also been proposed in the present study.