MODELLING DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN RELATION TO CAPACITY PLANNING

Abstract

Domestic airlines play a vital role in overall transport services of a country. Though, a small share of intercity passenger traffic is catered by the domestic airlines in India, yet the growth rate of the demand has been spectacular (average annual growth rate over ten percent). Indian Airlines and Vayudoot are the main agencies catering the domestic air traffic. Vayudoot provides a tertiary level feeder service. It is still in the stage of infancy and most of the domestic air travel demand is fulfilled by Indian Airlines only. The traffic of Indian Airlines predominately consists of passengers, and cargo traffic' is very less in comparison to it. The high rate of growth and consequent demand for capacity under financial constraints establishes the need of systematic planning to make optimal use of the facilities. Analysis of travel demand is the pre-requisite of all such planning. The analysis of network and demand revealed that percentage share of the traffic in different intercity distance ranges had remained almost constant over the years inspite of substantial network expansion in last fifteen years or so. Normally, the levels of socio-economic activities and the pattern of their interaction determine the • transportation demand. Air travel is similarly explainable by these indicators and transportation system characteristics. iv As the air travel demand and its distribution across the network is the key aspect for capacity planning of an airline system, the research was oriented to develop and calibrate an air travel demand model for Indian Airlines, network. An abstract mode model was estimated for 1987-88 domestic travel, reported by Indian Airlines. Appropriate tests were performed to establish the credibility of the model. The model form selected provides direct and cross elasticities. Thus, if reuired, analysis of demand sensitivity with respect to competing mode will be possible. While the global model did not fit well to the data, disaggregated form of the model with classification of links in three categories (<500 kms, 500-1000 kms and >1000 kms) provided better performance. The model developed was used to make forecast for the expected passenger traffic in 2001 A.D. while the model provided the traffic for the links, the passengers to be handled by individual airport were computed. To demonstrate the use of developed model in capacity planning, terminal capacity required for passenger handling was estimated for different airports using projected demand levels. Planning of other operational and infrastructural facilities can also be done in similar lines using the projected air travel