AN APPROPRIATE FORECASTING TECHNIQUE FOR ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND

Abstract

The main objective of energy resources development for power generation is to meet the consumer's demand. Forecasting future electrical energy demand of a system is the basic requirement of system planning. It is very essential to know the magnitude and characteristics of demand in advance. Purpose of electrical energy demand forecasting is governed by the period covered. Short-term forecast (1 to 2 years) are useful for operational and budgetary purposes. Medium term forecasts (S to 10 years) are the most important and essential for planning and design of power projects. Long-term forecasts ( 10 to 20 years or more) are required to prepare master plans and to study the utilization of energy resources. System and substation forecasts are essential to plan the generation, transmission and distribution requirements of the power system. Forecasting the future electrical energy demand of a system is a challenging assignment. As the future is shrouded with uncertainties, efforts should be made to assess the demands as accurate as possible. The effects of over and under estimation on the power system and the economic development of the area served by it are to be made. It is important to study and analyse the major factors affecting the magnitude and characteristics of the electrical energy demand. Several forecasting techniques and practices used in some of the countries are to be studied. Though several forecasting methods are in use in many parts of the world, it is seen that no technique would yield full proof results because of uncertainties of the future. Each of the. forecasting method has its own limitations. An appropriate forecast can only be prepared after assessing the needs by several practicable approaches and reviewing the results by applying experience, knowledge and sound judgment.