FORECASTING ENERGY GENERATION FROM RUN-OF RIVER PROJECTS

Abstract

Hydro power potential in India is about 84,000 MW at 60 % load factor, out of which only 22,000 MW has so far been harnessed. Its share in total energy generation is about 22 % whereas for efficient power system it shall be 40 %. To improve the situation power sector has been opened to private sector recently by the new policy of Govt. of India. Hydro power generation is possible either by storage or run-of-the river projects. Due to inherent problems of storage schemes, run-of-the river schemes are more attractive and out of 845 total identified hydro electric sites 514 are run-of-the river schemes. This study deals with energy planning issue of run-of-the river schemes. The study of existing/ under constructed run-of-the river schemes of the Ganga valley has shown that to generate optimum energy the projects of Maneri Bhali Stage I, Stage I1 and Chilla power project are designed for discharges varying considerably on the flow duration curve (33 to 46 % of exceedance probability). For Sri-nagar project, which is now in private sector, techno-economic analysis has been carried out to fix design discharge (21 % of exceedance probability) and installed capacity giving minimum unit cost of generation for the annual energy generated in 90 % dependable year. The study of this data of actual generation of energy at Maneri Bhali Stage I and Chilla project has shown that annual energy generation at these projects is about 60-70 % of the planned 0vn; la61 Li h' energy. This revealed that suitable plant/factor should be assumed at the planning stage.