DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Abstract

Daily rainfall-runoff modelling is continuing to be one of the active areas of research in surface water hydrology. Simulation of daily runoff is required for the formulation of long range forecast, computation of water availability in planning and operation of river valley projects. In India, most of the gauging sites have been established in last few decades and the runoff data are available for short duration. For several smaller catchments, runoff data are not available at all. In order to get a long term series of daily runoff, a daily rainfall-runoff model may be developed and the same can be utilised to generate runoff series utilising the daily rainfall data, which normally are available for a long duration._x000D_ In the rainfall-runoff modelling various sources of uncertainty are associated. These include the uncertainty in the model input, uncertainty in the model structure, uncertainty in the model parameters and uncertainty in the model output. However, through calibration process, uncertainty associated with the model parameters are reduced. Uncertainty associated with the other sources are inherent in the model output. Hence, the model output are subject to these uncertainties.....