GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES

Abstract

Power industry has- to meet the long term requirements of (i) adequate. power supply. (ii) appropriate quality of power (committed voltage and frequency)-, (iii) acceptable reliability of power supply, and (iv) power supply at lowest possible cost. Electricity generation expansion over a planning horizon is based on consideration of various factors such as (i) forecast of anticipated load and accuracy of forecast, (ii) potential expansion projects in a region, (iii) financial considerations (expansion budget. rate of return, depreciation, escalation in prices), (iv) generation system reliability. Uncertainty exists in some of the factors to be considered in generation expansion planning. Therefore fallacy of optimum exists in dealing with such type of real life problems. This dissertation work has been taken up to analyse some of the important issues in generation expansion planning through a case study and to analyse effect of uncertainities in (i) load forecast, (ii) fuel cost, and (iii) capital cost. The-analysis of generation expansion problem is carried out through-a case study of power supply for Kalimantan istand Indonesia over the planning horizon of 1995 to 2013 AD....