A COMPUTER BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERN MAHARASHTRA REGION

Abstract

Sustainable Development, which has been accepted as an all important concept in recent years, is likely to remain just that, without a strong ethical base to support it and a suitable technology to operationalise it. The operationalisation of this concept is of paramount importance at the global as well as the local levels This thesis endeavours to operationalise the concept of sustainable development at the regional / district level by developing a computer (spread-sheet and GIS) based visual-interactive-predictive-corrective Decision Support System which will be user-friendly and easy to understand at the grass-roots levels. It goes on to demonstrate the use of this DSS in the case of the Southern Maharashtra Region which presents a collage of diverse socio-economic and physio-climatic conditions and is currently at crucial cross-roads of developmental options. It takes a look at the requirement of an ethical framework of "Trusteeship" (care, respect and responsibility) towards the environment and goes on to illustrate the concept of sustainable development at the regional level as an ecodevelopmental issue. The history of eco-developmental thought is traced up to its present ubiquitous status. The definition of a holistic human development paradigm and the need for public awareness and participation in order to achieve it is emphasised. The role required to be played by the government to improve the quality of life through assessment of the demand for and the provision of both, positive and negative public goods, in order to facilitate the attainment of this holistic development paradigm is spelt out. The technological base required for playing this role effectively is outlined. The theories, concepts and techniques which form the substantive background for the postulations and the development of this thesis, along with the technological basis for its operationalisation are spelt out. The theories of Regional Concept, VI Place - Work - Folk, Ecology and Ekistics, Corporate Management and Decision- Making, Central versus Participatory regional Planning are enunciated in brief. The present status of regional planning in India is mentioned. The changing role of the district administration in information collection, storage, management and dissemination along with the enabling technology for Sustainable Regional Development (SRD) in the form of a country-wide computer-communication and Geographical Information System network is emphasised. The various dimensions of man - environment interactions and the conceivable approaches to the study of these have been looked at. The concept of sustainability and the limits of this concept have been examined. The constraints on development and their inherent flexibility which necessitate an anticipatory-adaptive approach in order to conform to the path of sustainable development are studied. The deductiveinductive approach adopted in this study has been out-lined. Aconceptual model of Sustainable Regional Development (SRD) has been postulated and its subsystems defined along with their respective elements. The qualities required In these elements or indicators of sustainable development are specified and the selected indicators highlighted. The theoretical and statistical validity of the selected indicators has been established. The possible frameworks for development and organisation of sustainable development indicators have been examined, finally settling for the combination type of framework for this study. Asystems approach to Sustainable Regional Development (SRD) is adopted by envisaging it as a holistic concept requiring a Pareto-optimal balance to be maintained over time and space between four components of liveability (COL)s namely - social well-being, economic vitality, infrastructure availability and environmental quality.

A set of ten indicators has been selected under each COL. These indicators have been classified as positive or negative depending upon whether they contribute to or detract from the path of sustainable development. The directionality of these indicators of sustainable development has been decided by conducting a experts opinion poll. Use has been made of Multi-Variate Analysis Theory for converting these indicators Into Sustainable Development Indices (SDI)s through a standardisation technique. The four Components of Liveability (COL)s have been obtained by a weighted summation of these ten Sustainable Development Indices (SDI)s each through Multi-Attribute Utility Technique. An overall sustainable development function, Composite Aggregated Development Index of Sustainability (CADIS) is worked out by aggregating the four COLs in a similar fashion. These have been used in a spatio-temporal analysis with the help of the Decision Support System developed by this research. A computer based visual-interactive-predictive-corrective Decision Support System (DSS) for operationalising the concept of SRD has been developed. This utilises the dynamic data to data and data to graphic interlinkage and visualisation capabilities provided by a windows based spreadsheet and geographical information system (GIS) softwares. It can be used effectively by the decision makers at the grass-roots level for planning, monitoring and enlightened decision making so as to maintain the region / district on the path of sustainable development. This DSS is visual-interactive-predictive-corrective in structure and can be used gainfully to visualise the effects of tentative decisions a priori in data, chart and graphic (map) forms. The seven cyclic stages of the DSS have been described The use of this DSS has been demonstrated in the case of the Southern Maharashtra Region comprising of five districts. Data has been collected for all forty VIII indicators of sustainability for three time frames of 1971, '81, and '91. This has been converted into SDIs, COLs and CDIs by MVA techniques and extrapolated to 2001 and 2011. The bar charts and trend-lines which are dynamically linked to the data help in easy visualisation of the trends. The levels of and weightages attached to each COL can be altered interactively by the decision makers. These would lead to identification of Critical Success or failure Factors (CSF)s and the required modifications if any in these through policy interventions. Scenario building allows a priori visualisation of the financial, physical and temporal implications of these decisions. A Geographical Information System (GIS) software has been used to visualise the spatial implications of these decisions, thus giving a feed-back to sectoral policy making. The section on conclusions and recommendations outlines the theoretical and experimental contributions of this thesis along with the efficacy and the limitations of the DSS postulated. Finally suggestions for desirable further research directions have been listed.