MODERN TRENDS IN LOAD FORECASTING WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO KERALA SYSTEM

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of future load demands is the basis of effective planning of any power system. A number of methodologies have been developed in the recent years for load forecasting. A review of some of the methods being used alongwith their relative advantages and limitations are dis-cussed. The methodology adopted by the Central Electricity Authority, and now being followed in India is also discussed in detail. The Box-Jenkins method of' stochastic modelling has been studied in detail and the method has been used for forecasting the energy demands and peak loads of All India and Kerala Systems. The method developed by J.B Scheer based on mathe-matical formula correlating demographic factors has been studied and the energy requirements of Kerala System has been forecasted upto 1991-92. A comparative study with the load forecasted by Central Electricity Authority and by Scheerts method has been made to highlight the effectiveness of Box-Jenkins method.....