USE OF PROBABILITY METHODS IN MODERN GENERATING CAPACITY PROBLEMS

Abstract

Probability Methods are increasingly being applied to generating capacity problems. Developments in this field. are outlined, over a brief review. A fear relevant aspects of planning are discussed in the chapter that follows. Some basic concepts of generating capacity reliability and the roots of probability theory that simultaneously creep , up, have been briefly mentioned in the respective chapter. Some of the basic probability methods with explanations of tfrequency and duration' approach have been laid in the subsequent chapter. An application has been made to deal with the genera-ting capacity problem of Nathpa Jhakri, hydro-electric probject of Himachal Pradesh, with reference to the Western part of the Northern Region. Effect of larger unit size viz 255 MW instead of 170 MW has been examined with the aiC, of 'Frequency and Duration Approach' using 'Recursive Technique'.- Though , an attempt is made to confine the studies to the Indian conditions, lack of data on the subject has lead to various assumptions based on overseas utilities. No attempt, has, hawever, been made to study all the many existing variations in the connected techniques of evaluation.. Even though, various, methods have been mentioned, but mainly 'Recursive Approach' to 'Frequency and Duration Method' has been discussed and applied.