DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR WATER RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN CHANGING CLIMATE

Abstract

The water resources of the nation form the major resources responsible for the overall development (Irrigation, Power, Drinking, Navigation, Industrial use etc). Water is a renewable source for the production of Energy. Hence the optimal use of the resources is vital important and management of resources should on scientific basis. Hence some of the Decision Support Systems are developed address the need of better management of the resources. Since the rainfall is not uniform in spatial as well as temporal, hence it is quite necessary to know the amount of rainfall that may come in the specified duration so as to plan the for the priorities of use in the interest of social and economy. In climate change scenario, it is evident that less focus is given to predict the water availability in future days. If we know the changes in water availability, it is possible to plan for adoption scenarios to mitigate the changes. The population is also growing which results in increased need of the resources reflect on importance of preservation of the resources. The rainfall over the country is primarily orographic, associated with tropical depressions originating in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The summer monsoon accounts for more than 85 % of the precipitation. The uncertainty of occurrence of rainfall marked by prolonged dry spells and fluctuations in seasonal and annual rainfall is a serious problem for the country. Large parts of Haryana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are not only in deficit in rainfall but also subject to large variations, resulting in frequent droughts and causing immense hardship to the population and enormous loss to the nation. The water availability even for drinking purposes becomes critical, particularly in the summer months as the rivers dry up and the ground water recedes. Regional variations in the rainfall lead to situations when some parts of the country do not have enough water even for raising a single crop. On the other hand excess rainfall occurring in some parts of the country creates havoc due to floods. The nature of climate change and the incompleteness of scientific understanding of its consequences mean that decision makers must expect to be surprised - probably with increasing frequency (e.g., "hundred-year" storms may recur every decade). So there is a viii need to evaluate critically the changes (droughts and floods) which occur in water resources. This is pre-requisite to planning for preparedness for the changes attributable to climate change. The power generation is proportional to the water availability hence is required to study the reliability of power generation with climate change with increased demand due to population growth. To study the future cropping pattern and improved cultivation methods to cope up with change in the water resources. Hence, there is pressing need to develop an interactive computer decision support system assist in decision making and adoption scenarios with climate change. The present study has been undertaken with an objective and to develop Graphical User Interface (GUI) for various modules for the data management, surface water assessment, ground water assessment, in assessment of water resources. Under this topic, study area is chosen as a Tawa catchment in Madhya Pradesh, India. The modules namely surface water, ground water, climate change and water resources with climate change are developed in visual basic environment. The ArcGIS is extensively used in the creation of catchment model. The temperature and rainfall relations have studied and adopted in the various models used in development of decision support system. The Software that is decision support system for water resources assessment in changing climate is very useful and self explanatory, menu driven has capability to address the needs of the project for decision- making and benefit of the nation.