THE USE OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR AGROTECHNOLOGY TRANSFER (DSSA T) TO EVALUATE THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTION

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L) which is most important crop in India is the second most important in Uttarakhand. The area under rice in Uttarakhand is decreasing gradually with similar trends in yields. This poses threat to sustainability and is a cause for concern. Warming of the climate is indisputable as is now evident from observations of increase in global average air and other climatic variables. Understanding the impact of climate change on rice production through application of the crop model will be helpful for future sustainability analysis. The DSSAT CERES Rice Version 4 was calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production. It was used to analyse the effect of climate change on rice production in Roorkee, Uttarakhand. The adopted scenarios were increase of mean surface temperature in the range of 0.5 °C — 4.0 °C, 7 increments of CO2 @ 180 ppm up to 1260 ppm, and 2 mm/day increase in precipitation. The results were simulated within acceptable errors. The results found that increase in temperature will affect rice yield negatively. A decrease in the range of 2 % — 26 % was observed. CO2 enrichment will not compensate for large amount of yield loss. Physiological maturity, anthesis day and panicle initiation is all affected by increased temperature. Mitigation experiments were carried out and it was found that planting rice later in July resulted in increase of yield. Rice Variety Pant- 4 preformed best in terms of grain yield. Therefore, a shift in planting date may be recommended with the use of Variety Jaya. The results of the study are viewed only within the constraints of the limitations of the tools adopted for the analysis.