FORECASTING OF FUTURE LOADS OF A SYSTEM

Abstract

Main objective of energy resources development for power gene- ration is to meet the consumers' demands, Forecasting future loads of a system is the basic requirement of system planning. It is very essential to know the magnitude and characteristics of loads well in advance. Purpose of load forecasting is governed by the period covered, Short-term forecasts (1 to 2 years) are useful for operational and budgetary purposes. Medium-term forecasts (5 to 10 years) which are the most important are essential for planning and design of power projects, Long-term forecasts (10 to 20 years) are required to prepare master plane and to study the utilization of energy resources* System and substation forecasts are essential to plan the generation, transmission and distribution requirements of the power system. Forecasting the future loads of a system is a challenging assign- merit. As the future is shrouded with uncertainties, efforts should be made to assess the demands as accurately as possible, The effects of over and under estimation on the power system and the economic development of the area served by it are to be made. It is important to study and analyze all factors affecting the magnitude and charac-teristics of loads such as generating and plant characteristics, energy resources and growth of electricity use and economic factors, Several forecasting techniques and practices used in some of the countries are to be studied in detail. There are several fore-casting techniques in use in many parts of the world. It is seen that no technique will yield foolproof results because of the uncertainties of the future. Each of the forecasting methods has its own limitations. A good forecast can only be prepared after assessing the needs by several practicable approaches and review-ing the results by applying experience, knowledge and sound judgp-ment. Accuracy of a forecast depends on the accuracy of data made use of. Use of several techniques will be often limited, by the paucity of statistical information required in the field of power and economic development of the area concerned. Keeping all this in view and due to the importance of load forecasting it is neces-sary to formulate a simple yet reliable forecasting procedure. In this dissertation work, attempt has been made to formulate such a procedure which could be useful in estimating the medium-term re-quirements, and using this procedure the future requirements for the Mysore State has been estimated. Market research studies will have to be undertaken by the utility concerns in order to improve the forecasting approaches. Forecasting future loads of a system involves collection and analysis of vast statistical data. Electronic data processing and high speed dtgital computers have solved this problem to a great extent and have a very important role to play in the achievement of the objective of accurate load forecasting.