RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION: DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES; WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO IRAN

Abstract

Until recently, rural-urban migration was regarded as a vital force in rapid economic development in Iran and in other developing countries. This belief was bolstered by prevalent theories that economic development was dependent upon drawing labour away from agriculture into industry, and that industrialization was the major force in economic growth. But, it seems the relationship between migration and development is not usually seen in this light in developing countries, particularly in Iran. Rural-urban migration has created multifarious problems in urban as well as in rural areas of Iran and other developing countries. It is generally believed that high rate of urban population increase, urban unemployment and underemployment, poverty, shortage of labour force in some rural areas, poor performance of agricultural sector, rural backwardness, etc. are mainly because of undesired cityward migration of rural population. In a country like Iran, where disparities in respect of economic development exist, not only between the provinces but even within the provinces, and there is not enough decentralization of economic opportunities, the study of migration has its own importance. The present study is an attempt to investigate the determinants as well as the consequences of rural-urban migration with special reference to Iran. Also the flow of rural-urban migration in Iran during 1956-1996 and its characteristics are discussed. Besides, the most important economic policies and strategies, which can be used for controlling and optimization of this kind of migration, are explained. Objectives In brief, the present study covers the following objectives: (i) to identify the factors that influence the rural-urban migration; (ii) to investigate the consequences of rural-urban migration on migrants, rural origins and urban destinations; (iii) to study the flow of rural-urban migration in Iran; (iv) to identify the policies and procedures which can be used to control and optimize rural-urban migration flow; and (v) to offer suggestions which could have important policy implications. Research Methodology The present investigation has exclusively drawn upon secondary data mainly collected from Population Censuses and Statistical Yearbooks of Iran. To achieve the mentioned objectives of the study, a sequential steps procedure of collection of data, analysing (processing and interpretation) the data and analytical tools are used. Besides tabular analysis based on means and averages, the ordinary least square model has been applied to analyse the determinants accountable for migration in Iran. The functional form of the model is: IM/OM = a + Ef_ 4 B.X..+P. ' - J n ij O Furthermore, in order to estimate the future growth of urban population and the flow of rural-urban migration in Iran for the coming 40 years (up to 2036), the following exponential equation is used: Pj=Po(J +r)n Chapter-wise Summary of the Thesis The study is divided into eight chapters, gives a brief account of certain important aspects and dimensions of migration: Chapter I, the introductory chapter, defines important terms, reveals the various types of migration and states the salient characteristics of migrants. This chapter, also, deals with the importance, objectives and scope of the study. Besides these, it spells out the methodology that has been adopted. This chapter forms the base on which the superstructure of analysis of the investigation is built in the succeeding chapters. Chapter II deals with the related literature concerned with the topic. Chapter III explains the laws, theories, and theoretical models of migration. In this chapter we have discussed the most important migration theories and models.. vi Chapter IV throws light on various determinants of rural-urban migration. Economic factor as well as social, cultural, political, demographic, geographical and physical factors, which influence migration flows, are stated. Chapter V, "Consequences of Migration", shows the positive as well as negative consequences of rural-urban migration on migrants themselves, rural origins and urban destinations. Economic, social, cultural, demographic, and physical effects of migration are discussed. Chapter VI focuses on the flow of rural-urban migration in Iran. This chapter investigates the population transition of Iran during the five nationwide censuses of population and housing in Iran. It includes, also, forecasting of the flow of urban population growth and migration for the next 40 years. Chapter VII highlights the economic policies, procedures and strategies that can be used for optimizing and controlling the rural-urban migration flows. Various policies such as rural development policies, construction and extension ofgrowth poles and new towns, and closed-city policies are stated. Chapter VIII presents a summary of the thesis, findings and conclusions, and recommendations for policy consideration, along with some suggestions for further research. Major Findings Chapter I: Alarge proportion ofthe rural-urban migrants in LDCs are adolescents or young adults; most of the migrants are males except in Latin American countries where females dominate; a large proportion of migrants are single; the migrants are better educated than the non-migrants in the rural areas; and finally most of the migrants originate from families of two distinct economic classes - the economically poorest and richest from the rural community. vu Chapter II: By evaluation of the literature concerned with the research, we found that most of the studies concentrated either on determinants and consequences of migration or on the characteristics of migrants and rarely they examined the policies and strategies which can control and optimize the migration flows. Chapter III: Among all the theories, which were explained in this chapter, we found that Todaro's model of migration was most fitted than other theories to the Iranian society. In spite of all the shortcomings in the Todaro's model of migration, it has contributed significantly to explaining rural migration to urban areas in LDCs and from our point of view appears to be the most relevant theory in explaining the process of rural migration to urban areas in the Third World countries such as Iran. Chapter TV: (1) The major reason for migration is economic. Land scarcity and population pressure on land; wage and income differentials; unemployment and employment opportunity differentials; unequal distribution of resources; technological improvements and mechanization; land reform; and general economic conditions are the most important economic factors that motivate rural-urban migration. (2) Besides economic factors, social and cultural factors also play a vital role in ruralurban migration. Family structure; family conflict; social position; social pressure and discrimination; marriage and social services differentials are discussed as the most prominent social and cultural factors. (3) A number of educational and demographic factors such as age; sex; family size; higher rate of population increase and population-resources relationship; and education play a determining role in the migration-propensity spectrum. (4) Geographical, environmental and physical factors such as climate; land forms in terms of altitudes; the quality of the soil; the availability of energy sources, and raw vin material resources; natural disasters like floods, droughts, storms, earthquakes, epidemics; origin-destination distance and the size of destination have also been found to influence the migration of population. (5) Apart from the factors mentioned above, there are some other important factors, which affect migration such as political and institutional factors like political conflicts, revolution, war, military service, and government policies. All of these have been explained in detail. (6) Based on cross-sectional data for 1996, the most important independent variables explaining the variation in provinces' outmigration in Iran were percentage of irrigated area and mechanization. Also the most significant explanatory variables for provinces' inmigration in Iran were amenities and mechanization. Chapter V: Rural-urban migration has a number of economic, social, cultural, demographic and physical impacts on the area of outmigration, the area of inmigration and the migrants themselves. The most important are as follows: (1) Theoretically, migration directs the spatial economy to a state of equilibrium. (2) In practice it creates a shortage of agricultural labour in some rural areas and increases the urban unemployment and underemployment. (3) Affects the quantitative as well as qualitative compositions of labour. (4) Adversely affects the agricultural and non-agricultural productions in rural areas. (5) Partly leads to an induced technological change in origin. (6) Affects the mode of production and price level. (7) Creates a lot of urban problems and difficulties. (8) Adversely affects the development and growth of both the origin and the destination. (9) Positively affects the land and housing prices in urban areas and negatively affects the same in rural areas. IX (10) Breaks down the traditional cultures of migrants and creates a situation of cultural pluralism. (11) Exercises significant impact on the social mobility and occupational structure. (12) Creates problems of social adjustment and assimilation faced by migrants. (13) Highly correlates with crime rates in urban areas. (14) Causes the origin areas lose the educational resources of their out-migrants and the destination areas benefit. (15) Increases the extended families, family cooperation and participation and responsibility of the migrants' women in rural areas and causes freedom promotion of the migrants' women in urban areas. (16) Influences population distribution and leads to a considerable change in population-resource relationship. (17) Changes the age and sex compositions of population of origin and destination. (18) Reduces birth rate in villages and increases it in cities. (19) Leads to some physical and mental effects on migrants, their families and nonmigrants. Chapter VI: (1) There was no significant net rural-urban migration before 1934 in Iran. But after 1934 rate of migration to urban areas has increased substantially and this pattern has further accelerated after 1966. Official figures indicate that, on an average, 1000 Iranian villages have been evacuated and uninhabited every year since 1966. (2) It has been found that some part of urban population growth rate is the result of change of the national division of Iran. In other words, there were some rural locations, which changed to urban class. According to official figures there were 199 urban centers in Iran in 1956 (as per the first nationwide census of Iran), this number rose to 271 by 1966, 373 by 1976, 496 by 1986, and 614 by 1996. (3) It has been found that four factors explain the sharp increase in the urban population during 1956-96. Firstly, a national population increase amounting to 41100000 for the period. Secondly, boundaries of same cities expanded to include the surrounding villages and rural areas, so that portion of rural population became urbanites without actually having migrated. Thirdly, population of some villages increased to the point of surpassing the 5000 mark (which is the minimum population required for a place to be considered as an urban centre). These rural areas (415 localities)'were then recognized as urban centers. Finally, the urban population increased due to substantial migration to urban centers. (4) Nearly all the urban areas of Iran during 1956-96 experienced a population growth rate higher than their natural population rate of growth. This increase in urban population is mainly the result of rural migration flow to urban centers. (5) Total population of Iran has increased from 18.955 million in 1956 to 60.055 million in 1996. In the same period, urban population of Iran has increased from 5.954 million in 1956 to 36.817 million in 1996. In other words, during this 40 years period, 30.863 million persons have been added to urban population, which includes 75%of total increased population of the country. On the other hand, rural population has increased from 13.001 million in 1956 to 23.237 million in 1996 with increased population of 10.236 million, which includes 25% of total increased population of the country. In other words, against the annual growth rates of urban population in decades 1956-66; 1966-76; 1976-86 and 1986-96 which were 5.1%; 4.9%; 5.40%) and 3.20% respectively, the annual growth rates of rural population in mentioned decades were 2.1%; 1.1%; 2.38% and 0.27% respectively. Ratio of rural population has been 68.6% in 1956; 62% in 1966; 53% in 1976; 45.7% in 1986 and 38.7% in 1996 whereas urban population ratio in mentioned years was 31.4%; 38%; 47%; 54.29% and 61.3% respectively. This increase in urban population surely has not been through the natural growth of urban centers; rather a considerable flow of rural-urban migrants has had a remarkable effect on the growth of urban population. (6) Supposing that 1.96% and 3.20% (the annual average total and urban population growth rates of Iran during 1986-96 respectively) are annual average total and XI urban population rates of growth, during the coming 40 years (up to 2036), approximately the entire population will be settled in urban centers and consequently rural areas will be evacuated by their inhabitants. This situation will lead to destruction of agricultural sector, demolition of rural areas, complete dependence on imported agricultural productions and finally numberless deleterious consequences. Chapter VII: (1) As the urbanward drift of the population is caused mostly by the poor living conditions in the village, the most effective economic policy to arrest migration is obviously the all-round development of the rural areas. Development programs, which improve rural living conditions and incomes, can be used to reduce migration flows to urban areas. Providing employment opportunities in rural areas; development of industrial activities in villages; improvement of social services and facilities in rural areas; land reforms; appropriate pricing policy for agricultural products; improvement of marketing facilities for agricultural products; extension of irrigation facilities; development of credit resources; and insurance of agricultural products are the most important economic procedures and strategies which can lead to the development of rural areas and consequently reduce ruralurban migration. (2) Another set of policies, which can be used to optimize and control the rural-urban migration flow, is related to the development of growth poles and construction or extension of new towns (such as dormitory towns, industrial parks, satellite towns etc.). These growth centers and new towns can be considered as points of attraction for migrants who otherwise go to large congested cities. (3) Return of migrants and closed-city policies also have been adopted to prevent the undesired migration streams in different countries. While such measures can achieve some amount of success in the centrally planned countries, in democratic countries, they will give rise to a number of difficult and complex problems. xn Conclusion In spite of its being a logical concomitant of economic development, rural-urban migration in LDCs is quite often viewed as a socio-economic problem. Problems and difficulties such as high urban unemployment and underemployment, regional imbalances, pressures on the physical and social infrastructures, inflation, poverty, inadequate sanitary and educational services, shortages in other services, creation of slums and squatter settlements, traffic and transportation problems, destroying the ecological basis of life, environmental pollution, social disorganization, congestion, social tensions and conflicts, cultural frictions etc. are the most important problems which associate with rural-urban migration. In order to control and optimize the ruralurban migration flows, planners and policy makers should adopt rural development policies, development of growth poles and new towns strategies and return of migrants and closed-city policies or asuitable combination of these policies coinciding with the existing conditions.