Application of Weather Research and Forecast Modelling System in Simulating Heavy to Extreme Rainfall Events

Abstract

Kedarnath, Uttarakhand and Pettimudi, Kerala, both received an unusually high amount of rainfall during the monsoon seasons of 2013 and 2020. Both precipitation events directly led to widespread disasters in the respective regions. This study aims to simulate the above mentioned events through the WRF modelling system configured using ECMWF Reanalysis Data Version 5 (ERA5) and NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) reanalysis datasets as initial and boundary conditions. Selected variables from the simulations are then plotted against observational data obtained from weather stations in the vicinity of the affected regions. The correlation between the variables of each simulation and the observational data is obtained to determine the performance of the dataset in simulating the extreme weather conditions in the selected domains. The findings reported here contribute to an improved understanding related to capabilities of the WRF modelling system in simulating extreme weather events occurred at two different parts of India which might help in developing an early warning system due to extreme weather events induced disasters.