IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES ON LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF HARIDWAR DISTRICT, UTTARAKHAND

Abstract

The field of research looking at the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature has received a great deal of attention from scientists and scholars worldwide. Even though most of the researches focuss on carbon bonus and ozone depletion, the impact of developmental activities on the environment, human beings, and the ecosystem lack behind. After the establishment of Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) during (1964-1965) and started production by the end of 1965 and major projects like Parallel Upper Ganga Canal (PUGL), the area experienced a lot more urbanization in rural areas of Haridwar district after the 1980s. Several studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation are becoming evident on a global scale due to developmental activities or population growth. This study focused on changing trends in temperature and precipitation on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis in the Haridwar district. For trend analysis in this study, widely used Mann-Kendall (M.K), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Mann-Kendall with Pre-whitening (MK-PW) tests are used, and Sen’s slope estimator is used for detecting the magnitude of trend and Pettitt Mann Whitney (PMW) test to observe shifts in these climatic variables for the study period of 66 years (1955 to 2020). The results reveal that the Ever-Maximum temperature increased in all months (except May, June, July), seasonal (except pre-monsoon and monsoon), and annual. June showed the lowest decreasing trend with Z value -3.0952 at 0.01 level of significance while that of April showed no trend. The month of September indicates the highest positive significantly increasing trend (Z value +5.0758 and Sen’s slope +0.0250 for MMK) at 0.001 significance level and (Z value +2.7006 Sen’s slope +0.0158 for MK-PW) at 0.01 significance level. Although the annual temperature was increasing, insignificantly. Further all the data from 1955-2020 were divided into seven slots i.e., Slot-1 (1955-1960), Slot-2 (1961-1970), Slot-3 (1971-1980), Slot-4 (1981-1990), Slot-5 (1991-2000), Slot-6 (2001-2010), and Slot-7 (2011-2020). Analysis showed that the highest temperature recorded during the study period was 45.28 °C in the year 1958. Also, the number of yearly average hot days (temperature > 35 °C) during 1978-2000 was 68 days while the number of yearly hot days increased to 82 days and 89 days in 2001-2010 and 2011-2020, respectively. The Ever-Minimum temperature showed an increasing trend monthly (except June and October), seasonal (except post-monsoon by MMK), and annual temperature. The month of August with Z value +2.8307 (MMK) and September with Z value +1.7947 (MK-PW) indicated the highest positive increasing trend at 0.01, 0.1 levels of significance, respectively. Similarly, June indicates the lowest decreasing trend (Z value -0.6643 and Sen’s slope -0.0062), December showing no iii trend and remains non-significant. Also, the seasonal Ever-Minimum temperature decreased in post-monsoon by Z value -0.4357, and the rest of the season, including annual temperature, increased. Further all the data from 1955-2020 was divided into seven slots i.e., Slot-1 (1955 1960), Slot-2 (1961-1970), Slot-3 (1971-1980), Slot-4 (1981-1990), Slot-5 (1991-2000), Slot-6 (2001-2010), and Slot-7 (2011-2020). It was observed that during the period of analysis (66 years), there were only three days when the mercury dropped down below 0 °C. In 1964, 2007, and 2008, the minimum temperature dropped to - 1.66 °C, -0.1 °C, and -0.4 °C, respectively. Till 1990, the month of February was also cold, but after 2000, the month of February is comparatively hotter, having an average temperature of 9.3 °C. It was observed that the minimum yearly temperature had increased compared to that observed during 50's and 60's, and after 80's winter had become warmer, largely because of more urbanization activities in the area. The average temperature showed a mixture of increasing and decreasing trends during 66 years’ time period. The month of February indicated the highest positive increasing trend with Z value +3.4976 at 0.001 level of significance, and June the lowest. A decreasing trend with a Z value of -2.0476 and Sen’s slope -0.0147 at a 0.05 level of significance was observed from the M.K. test. The month of August with Z value +5.9056 (MMK) and July with Z value +3.3346 (MK-PW) indicated the highest positive increasing trend at 0.001 level of significance. Similarly, the average temperature showed an increasing trend for annual and seasonal (except pre-monsoon with Z value -0.0190 MMK and -0.4020 MK-PW). The rainfall showed a decreasing trend for monthly (except February, April-June), seasonal, and annual rainfall during 66 years’ time period. The monsoon rainfall decreased with Z value -2.45 and Sen’s slope by -4.204 at 0.05 level of significance. The annual rainfall with Z value -2.41 was also seen to be decreasing at 0.05 level of significance while that of winter season showed no significant trend. The highest sum of rainfall was received in the year 2010 (1916.30 mm), and the lowest rainfall was received in the year 1987 (637.63 mm). Compared to the ’50s, 60’s decades, rainfall in the Haridwar district showed a decreasing trend, which may be due to urbanization in the area after 1980. Interestingly, from 1978-2020, (i) in a year, a maximum number of days having rainfall were 85 days (in 1978 and 2000) and least as 37 days in 2006; (ii) year 2010 received the heaviest rainfall greater than 100 mm for four days; (iii) the maximum number of days having rainfall (≥ 50 mm) was 12 days (1978), and the minimum was only one day in 1987, 1999 and 2019. At 0.05 level of significance Pettitt’s test is done for change point detection in temperature and precipitation on a seasonal and annual basis. For Ever-Maximum temperature (post-monsoon, iv winter, and annual), change point was detected in 1987, 2001, and 2001 respectively. Similarly, shifts in annual Ever-Minimum temperature in 1985 and all seasons (except post-monsoon) were observed between 1985 and 1979. Also, both the average seasonal (except pre-monsoon) and annual temperatures showed increasing shifts in all seasons from 1987, 1987, 1976, and 1985, respectively. There were no observable shifts in annual and seasonal precipitation, except post monsoon, showing a significantly decreasing shift from 1978 onwards at a 5% significance level.