Analysis of Pandemic Mathematical Models and their Control Strategies

Abstract

The project is about mathematical modelling of COVID-19 pandemic and the strategies to control it. This particular thesis mainly focuses on how the pandemic can be mathematically modeled and how the model can be used to propose a control strategy for COVID-19 situation in India. The modelling considers the pandemic with eight classes where each class represents a section of population and these sections of populations are segregated according to the disease progression. Once the equations are formulated the main goal is to calculate reproduction number R0 from various transmission rate parameters which are responsible for changes in the dynamics of these eight classes. The main purpose of this project is to first develop an open loop model for the pandemic by tuning these transmission rate parameters and then bringing down the infected cases using two simple control strategies. One is the basic feedback control and the other one is bang-bang control. The parameters are tuned and the infection is controlled by applying the above said control strategies using basic MATLAB coding and plotting relevant graphs.