PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PUNE CITY, INDIA

Abstract

The term sustainable development is used to define the way of utilizing the existing natural resources and ecosystem services that meet the goal of human development while sustaining the ability of the natural systems to continue providing these resources. It is the concept that ensures inter-generational equity. It calls for a more holistic development strategy that focuses not only on the economic but also on social and environmental aspects. The present research aims to evolve a plausible, sustainable development plan for the development of Pune city. At the same time, the hypothesis is that the lack of accessibility and affordability to basic services and infrastructural facilities results in an increase in social and economic disparity among various income groups in the study area. The present study is area-specific, and the recommendations are applicable to the study area only. However, the basic framework can be applied in evolving the sustainable development plan of any other Indian city by considering the locally available control parameters, which decide the functions of the system. In order to identify the control parameters that decide the functions of the system, 40 linear regression, and multiple regression models are developed. The control parameters with strong and medium bearing among them are used for modeling purpose. The system dynamics technique is applied in the present research to understand the functions of the system as a whole, along with its various subsystems in different alternative conditions for evolving a suitable planning model. STELLA software is used in developing the System Dynamics Model. The modeling process includes fixing model boundaries based on the aim and objectives of the study, availability of the control parameters, and studying the flow effect and casual loop effect (spread effect and backwash effect). In the present study, a system dynamics model is developed for Pune Municipal Corporation (urban model), considering the city as the system which is dependent on various other sub-systems.The growth of the city's population depends not only on the birth rate and death rate but also on inmigration and outmigration rates, which are influenced by the city’s attractiveness index. An increase in the city’s attractiveness index attracts the population in the city, and a decrease in the index makes the population leave the city. The index is influenced by physical and social infrastructure, employment opportunities, economic situation, and environmental conditions. To address each of these parameters/indicators, sub-system-wise system dynamics models are created to calculate ten different indices that directly affect the city’s attractiveness index. All these sub-system-wise models are combined with the population model to develop an integrated urban dynamics model. These models are developed by using historical data and household survey data, followed by identifying the most important controlling parameters that decide the functions of the system. The integrated Urban Dynamics Model is validated with 95 per cent accuracy and an error of less than 5 per cent, and the parameters of the system are projected till the year 2041 A.D. For the present investigation, more than 200 scenarios are developed and tested in the forecasted year model (2041 A.D.) by using 49 control parameters, of which 20 scenarios are selected which are having a significant impact on the city’s attractiveness index. Based on the scenario result, they are arranged from most pessimistic to most optimistic scenarios. The most optimistic scenario is selected, and the scenario results are compared to the results of the original scenario, which helps in estimating the benefits that can be achieved by changing the values of control parameters. Out of the total 20 scenarios, optimistic scenarios are one in which the city attractiveness index increases from base years (2021) to the projected year (2041 A.D.). There are 5 optimistic scenarios, of which scenario no. 20 has the greatest positive impact on the city attractiveness index. Subsequently, scenario no. 20 results are compared to the original scenario’s projections to the projected year model (2041 A.D.) result. Based on scenario no. 20’s results, a roadmap is prepared, and the recommendations are made for four phases – Phase I (2021-2026 A.D.), Phase II (2026-2031 A.D.), Phase III (2031-2036 A.D.), and Phase IV (2036-2041 A.D.) for sustainable development of the system.