GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EQUATION FOR HIMALAYAN REGION, INDIA

Abstract

Seismic hazard assessments can be carried out probabilistically, also known as probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, where all seismic events are linked to specific probabilities of occurrence, or deterministically, also known as deterministic seismic hazard assessment, when earthquake scenarios are specified without their chance of defined occurrence. Ground Motion Prediction Equations are required in both cases of seismic hazard assessment. Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are empirical statistical models used to estimate the expected ground motion at a particular location resulting from an earthquake at a nearby location. They are developed using various earthquake parameters such as Magnitude, Distance, focal depth, fault type, distance from the earthquake source to the site of interest, and local geological conditions. GMPEs are typically developed through statistical analysis of ground motion data recorded from past earthquakes. These equations are fundamental tools in seismic hazard assessment, earthquake engineering, and the design of structures to withstand seismic forces. The quantity and quality of the data play an essential role in developing a robust GMPE. The observed earthquake data of the Himalayan region was used to develop the GMPE for the Himalayan region. In this study, the data spanning from 1987 to 2017, with a magnitude ranging from 2.3 to 7.9, was collected from different sources. The data for the period from 2005-16 was downloaded from the PESMOS (Project Run by Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee), while the data from 1987 to 1999 was obtained from the Consortium of Organizations for Strong Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS) (http://strongmotioncenter.org/vdc) and the Center of Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) (http://strong motioncenter.org) and the Virtual Data Centre (VDC). Additionally, the data for significant earthquakes such as the Gorkha Nepal Earthquake (25/04/2015) and Nepal Earthquake (12/05/2015) were provided by the National Center of Seismology (https://seismo.gov.in/), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.