PERFORMANCE OF CMIP6 CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IN REPLICATING PATTERNS AND TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION-TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE

Abstract

Climate research revolve around important climatic variables, in which Precipitation and Temperature are crucial ones. They both hold important interconnections between them as they are physically connected to each other. This connection reveals their dependencies upon each other that vary throughout the seasons both globally and regionally. The association between them plays very important role in describing concurrent behaviour of these variables. Models could be used as tool for predicting this dependence but before that performance is important to be investigated of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models in order to accurately simulate the patterns and trends of the Precipitation-Temperature dependence. In this study, we tested the performance of CMIP6 model outputs with observed data for the period 1961-2014 during the South-West monsoon (June-July-August-September) and North-East monsoon (October-November-December). Next, the temporal evolution of P-T dependence is investigated for 30-year time to investigate how the dependence is varying temporarily. The findings of this study reveal that certain CMIP6 models work well in agreement with observational data in core-monsoon region for south-west monsoon only. The models exhibited better performance during south-west monsoon with probability of detection of grid points 0.89 while 0.66 for north-east monsoon. Using multi-model ensemble, the projection of dependence is explored under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP126 and SSP585. Our findings revealed a significant increase in positive dependence for high emission scenario in core-monsoon region. On the contrary, a significant negative dependence is projected for southern India. The findings obtained from these results are beneficial in understanding the efficacy of CMIP6 simulations in predicting compound events.