ROLE OF ENSO IN COMPOUND DROUGHT AND HEATWAVES OVER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT

Abstract

This study investigates the occurrence, frequency, and spatial distribution of Compound Dry Hot Events (CDHEs) from 1960 to 2020, analyzing their relationship with large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Through comprehensive visualizations and detailed spatial analysis, the research uncovers temporal trends, spatial patterns, and teleconnections between CDHEs and climate drivers. By dissecting CDHEs into mild and severe categories and exploring their geographic distribution across different study areas, the study enhances our understanding of regional climate vulner-abilities and risks. Furthermore, the investigation of co-occurrences between ENSO, IOD, and CDHEs provides valuable insights into the mechanisms driving compound climatic events, facilitating targeted climate adaptation strategies. Through logistic linear modeling, the re-search assesses the statistical significance of ENSO indices in predicting CDHE occurrences, offering insights for climate risk assessment and informed decision-making in the face of changing climate conditions. In addition to exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of CDHEs, the study delves into the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD phases, shedding light on their combined influence on CDHE occurrence. Through a meticulous analysis of monthly contingency tables spanning from 1950 to 2022, the research uncovers intricate relationships between these climate drivers and their impact on CDHE frequency and intensity. Moreover, by examining the odds ratios and p-values derived from logistic linear models, the study quantifies the statistical significance of ENSO indices in predicting CDHE occurrences, providing a robust framework for under-standing the complex interactions between large-scale climate phenomena and compound climatic events. Through these multifaceted analyses, the research contributes to advancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving CDHEs, thereby informing climate resilience strategies and policy interventions aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of ex-treme weather events.