EVALUATION OF SMALL-SCALE HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE UPPER AWASH RIVER BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

This study aimed to identify suitable sites for small-scale hydropower generation in Ethiopia's upper Awash River basin's Hombole catchment, where traditional energy methods are prevalent and causing environmental degradation. The researchers utilized the HEC-HMS model and ArcGIS to analyze daily rainfall data from 1990-2020 and stream flow data from 2000-2015 for calibration and 2000-2010 for validation. The calibration results showed Pbias of 8.36%, RMSE of 0.54, R2 of 0.803, and NSE of 0.71, while the validation results were Pbias of 9.63%, RMSE of 0.53, R2 of 0.8086, and NSE of 0.72. These performance metrics indicate the HEC-HMS model was well-calibrated and validated for the study area. The generated daily runoff was then used to estimate discharge and head at potential hydropower sites. The results of the hydropower assessment indicate that the analyzed areas of the Hombole catchment have considerable potential for small-scale hydropower development, with capacities ranging from 286 kW to 7157.037 kW. Furthermore, the study tested the power potential under future climate change scenarios. The results revealed that increased rainfall and stream flow projected for the mid and far-future climate could lead to enhanced hydropower potential in the region. This study provides valuable information to support sustainable energy planning and development of small hydropower in the Upper Awash River basin of Ethiopia.