ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN KOBO, ETHIOPIA AND EVALUATING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Abstract

Climate change poses a threat to food production and there is need to develop effective agricultural adaptation strategies. The objectives of the present study were to assess the potential impacts of climate change on sorghum yield in a rainfed production system, and investigate adaptation strategies in North Wolo, a major sorghum-producing district in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. The DSSAT CSM-CERES-Sorghum model was used to simulate sorghum growth under future climate scenarios. Climate projections from five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) based on two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of greenhouse gas emissions (SSPs 4.5 and 8.5) were used. The findings indicated that rainfed grain sorghum yield and crop evapotranspiration at the study sites would likely decrease in the future. On average. grain sorghum yield was projected to reduce by 21.46–21.83% and 19.09–25.69% by mid-century (2036-2065) and late century (2066-2095), respectively, compared to the baseline (1996-2020). Adaptation strategies including early planting date and supplemental irrigation were effective in increasing grain sorghum yield in the future, whereas late planting, normal planting date, longer maturity cultivar, and fertilizer application strategies did not result in yield benefits from baseline to future period. The findings of the study can be useful in implementing management interventions towards climate change adaptation that are crucial for the subsistence and fragile rainfed crop production system in Ethiopia and similar ecoregions around the world.