EVALUATING THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD, AND EXPLORING POSSIBLE ADAPTATION APPROACHES IN ARSI, SOUTHEASTERN ETHIOPIA, UTILIZING THE DSSAT MODEL

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide, with Ethiopia standing out as particularly vulnerable to its impact. In response to the inadequacy of adaptation research within the country, this study focuses on evaluating the effects of climate change on wheat yield and identifying crop management strategies to enhance productivity. By analyzing long-term climate data and future projections, this study forecasts substantial temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, highlighting the urgency of adaptation measures. Utilizing the advanced crop model, the DSSAT V4.8.2 CERES-wheat model and five Global Climate Models (GCMs), this study assesses optimal wheat varieties and sowing dates under future climate scenarios. This study examined two types of wheat cultivars: ‘Kakaba’, a new variety, and ‘Dandaa’, an old variety. These were compared with a reference planting dates on 16th June. The comparison was projected for two future periods: the mid-century (2036-2065) and the late-century (2066-2095), under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Results indicate significant potential yield gains through adjustments in sowing dates and the adoption of new wheat varieties. The Kakaba cultivar shows higher yield gains than the Dandaa cultivar under SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. For the early sowing date, the Kakaba cultivar outperformed the Dandaa cultivar under SSP 4.5 scenarios, resulting in a higher production increase of 265 Kg/ha and 290 Kg/ha for most years in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The Kakaba cultivar demonstrated a more favourable production with an average increase of 323 Kg/ha in the 2050s and 394 Kg/ha in the 2080s, surpassing the Dandaa cultivars' performance for those periods under future climate projections. These findings underscore the importance of proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on wheat production in Ethiopia and offer valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders.