CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN INDIA IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Abstract

The role of climate change in the intensification of climate extremes is addressed regularly in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The global signals for such intensification are quite prominent; however, the regional footprint necessitates detailed analysis. While precipitation extremes are modelled widely in terms of return levels, the temperature extremes manifest through heat waves. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to add the emerging body of knowledge associated with the probability-based metric and magnitude-based metric related characteristics of climate extremes (both precipitation and temperature extremes) with a particular focus in India. In this context, the spatial and temporal variations of climatic extremes in India are studied with high spatial resolution General Climate Model (GCM) data along with uncertainties, attribution, and data selection. The objectives of the thesis work emerged as follows after exploring and working in various associated areas: 1. To develop a framework incorporating deterministic and probabilistic methods for ranking gridded datasets and application of the framework for the Sutlej basin in India. 2. To model extreme precipitation in India under projected climate change scenarios and attribute the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes to climate change. 3. To compute and analyse the heat wave variables in India under projected climate change scenarios along with the delineation of associated uncertainties, attribution and impact of climate action.