SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Abstract

In PSHA the results with applicable higher self-confidence levels are generally reflected to adequately take care of both the aleatory and the epistemic uncertainties. Epistemic uncertainty includes the lack of information and scientific knowledge seismic in identifying various seismic source zones, estimating earthquake recurrence models, and selecting suitable attenuation relationships. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to select suitable options for various inputs to PSHA to account for the effect of epistemic uncertainties in a more rational manner. Sensitivity analysis is a site specific phenomenon and it is different for each site of interest. The current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSI-IA) sponsors considering multiple states with suitable weights for the several input models and parameters needed for the hazard computation. This dissertation report presents an indication of the epistemic uncertainties and the sensitivity of PSHA results to these uncertainties. Such an analysis helps in new at most appropriate decisions in the face of episternic uncertainties. This task is else very difficult and cannot be performed without simple tactic. This dissertation report is based on multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This tactic allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a diversity of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much unlikelier picture than standard considers, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. This approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.