ASSESSMENT AND MAPPING OF SHP POTENTIAL IN ZAMBIA USING GIS

Abstract

Due to the rapid increase in power demand, economic growth and environmental concerns the urgency and necessity for developing hydro and other renewable energy systems have emerged. Experts forecasts that between 2010 and 2030, electricity demand in Zambia will continue to grow at an average of 4.5 percent each year, while supply will only increase at an average rate of 3.9 percent annually, thus the country is expected to be energy deficit. In view of meeting such deficit and as part of Government vision 2030, the Government of Zambia has set ambitious electrification targets, and that will need a robust hydropower electricity infrastructure. The present study provides requisite information on rationale behind the assessment and development of alternative energy sources especially small hydropower. Further, literature review reveals that SHP being a mature, economically efficient technology, have minimal impact on the environment and can significantly contribute to electrification. Additionally, various scholars have also emphasized that the integration of assessment tools into GIS environments has led to a leap forward in the strengthening of the evaluation of the power potential and reassessment of their capacities. A systematic way of assessing the power potential, starting from discharge estimations to site optimization has been attempted under this study. By integrating Soil Water Assessment Tool, a public domain and popular software into GIS environment, the deterministic hydrologic model was able to predict hydrologic conditions over the temporal and spatial scales of the Kafue river basin, thus stream flows were estimated. It is imperative to note that estimation of stream flow is critical especially in poorly gauged and undeveloped stream reaches. Upon calculating the SHP potential of specific sites, the location/ optimisation analysis model was developed so as to guide the ranking of alternatives from a group of feasible options. The model involved applying the constraints and location criteria’s and giving the weightage sum output of the data. This will be useful in predicting consequences or benefits expected from picking on particular sites for development. The developed methodology was applied to the Kafue River Basin, in Zambia, and 14 SHP potential sites with the total power estimated at 40 MW were identified. This work will be beneficial to the future activation of SHP development especially as a preliminary source to carry out the work up to the feasibility study thus will help in decision making on whether to proceed further with SHP plant feasibility study and development. This will ultimately help in reducing the time and costs associated with the actual onsite studies and help in setting priorities for overall hydropower projects.