ASTRO-METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION OF RAINFALL- A KNOWLEDGE BASED APPROACH

Abstract

Rainfall is a random and chaotic phenomenon. It is a complex process which is difficult to model. The modern sophisticated equipments collect data but processing of data is still a challenge. One of the main reasons in facing difficulty of processing of data is the insufficient knowledge of weather and its processes. This knowledge is abundant in ancient texts which state that rainfall is not random. This process also has an initial state as well as intermediate states. Rainfall is not just a geographical phenomenon but an astronomical one. Hence the prediction of such an event should also involve astro-geodesy. The accuracy of present methods of rainfall prediction still needs improvement. The proposed methodology has used astro-meteorology for rainfall prediction. Two knowledge bases have been used: Astrological knowledge base and Meteorological knowledge base. The energy due to astrological conditions has been correlated with changes in atmosphere to predict rainfall. The meteorological data for years 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017 has been taken from NIH, Roorkee. The astrological data about stars and planets is taken from panchanga (geocentric) for years 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. The predicted and actual dates of rainfall are compared. It is observed that close conjunction of planets has relation with heavy rainfall. Energy is responsible for bringing any change. Rainfall is also a process with different stages of development. It is important to understand the type of energy used from going to one stage to another. This energy comes from the Sun either directly or indirectly. The indirect energy is due to reflection or transmission of rays of Sun from planets to the Earth. It can be concluded that rainfall is an astro-geodetic phenomenon