IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON DROUGHTS OVER INDIA

Abstract

The alteration of the hydrological cycle due to climate change and rapid growth in demand for freshwater due to population growth has posed increasingly complex challenges related to water resources management in 21st century (Goyal & Surampalli, 2018). The problem is more concerning in the developing countries such as India which has the second-largest population in the world with more than 1.3 Billion people living in highly population-dense environment. Moreover, 59% of the total workforce in India is dependent on agriculture, and almost 70 percent of rural households are primarily dependent on agriculture and its allied sector to make a living (FAO, 2019). The significant dependence of such a large number of people on agriculture makes India significantly vulnerable to climate change and extreme hydro-meteorological events such as floods and droughts. Drought is a state of environment which represents the deficiency in the water availability for a prolonged period. Each year many parts of the world face drought. Hazard caused by drought costs more than any other natural calamity. United States suffers approximately $6-8 billion loss per year due to drought hazard which was as high as $40 billion in 1988. In 1980s drought has killed over half a million people in Africa. Severe droughts of 1910s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s were followed by famine in Sahel nation of Africa. In 2009-2010 China experienced a severe drought which affected almost 21 million people and caused an economic loss of over $30 billion (Yang et al., 2012). The drought situation in many European countries is becoming more severe with time (Hisdal et al., 2001). However, the negative impacts of drought can be alleviated with careful monitoring and efficient planning. India faces one drought in approximately every three years. The frequency of drought has been reported to increase in various parts of the world, however, for India not much emphasis has been given previously toward the assessment of future droughts. Therefore, the major focus of this study is to develop a framework and enhance the methodological aspects of drought modelling to understand the changing nature of drought conditions over India under changing climatic conditions for different development pathways.