DETERMINANTS OF LIQUIDITY IN INDIAN COMMERCIAL BANKS: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION

Abstract

Banks are significant financial intermediary of the economy. It circulates the surplus cash to the economically deficient economy. Thus, a bank performs the function of liquidity management. During the process of liquidity management banks encounter with various types of risks which may further result into banking crisis. Hence, liquidity management is very important task of banks. It has been observed that during the crisis period (2007-2009), liquidity of developed banks was affected. As the Indian economy is the significant emerging economy, in this study it has been analysed that how financial crisis affected the liquidity of Indian banks and what are the factors which influences liquidity of Indian banks. Thus, this study aims to address following objectives in Indian banking sector, namely: 1. To analyze the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on liquidity of banks operating in India. 2. To study the change in the influence of determinants on liquidity of banks operating in India with change in bank ownership. 3. To examine the effect of determinants on bank liquidity with change in bank size. 4. To study the behaviour of determinants of bank liquidity in pre, crisis and post crisis periods. The primary objective of the study is to find the determinants, which affects the liquidity of Indian banking system. The sample size selected for the study consists of 63 banks, it consist of nationalised banks, private banks, State banks of associates and foreign banks. This study employs panel data regression technique to attain the desired objectives. Our analysis is divided into four stages. First stage of analysis includes all banks from 2000 to 2015. From the application of panel data estimations it was found that It was found that among bank-specific variables, NPA, NIM, ROA, cost of funding, and CAR are key determinants of bank liquidity. Macroeconomic variables - crisis, inflation and GDP - have a significant effect on liquidity. Second stage of analysis forms three samples based on ownership structure of banks, i.e. public banks, private banks and foreign banks. Regression analysis concludes that crisis had a similar effect on all banks (private, public and foreign). Bank size had a significant negative effect on public banks’ liquidity (LATA, CATA and LATD) and private banks’ liquidity (CATA, LATA and LATD) while it showed mixed effect (negative and positive) on foreign banks’ liquidity. vi Other liquidity determinants - CAR, inflation, NIM, NPA, COF, GDP, deposits – showed mixed effect on liquidity of public, private and foreign banks. Third stage analysis assesses the existence of association between independent variables and liquidity for small banks, medium banks, large banks and largest banks. Results reveal that NPA has a significant negative effect on medium banks and largest banks. COF has a significant negative impact on small banks, large banks and largest banks. Inflation has a negative effect on small banks, medium banks and large banks. GDP has a negative effect on medium banks, large banks and largest banks. While, crisis found to have a significant positive effect on all banks. Fourth stage analysis also illustrates effect of various liquidity determinants on liquidity measures in different time periods. 2000 to 2006 period analysis finds that GDP, Inflation, capital, NIM, Profitability, deposits and size have a significant effect on liquidity. Examination of 2007 to 2009 period highlights that size, inflation, NIM, profitability, COF, deposits, GDP and Capital have a significant effect on liquidity. 2010 to 2018 time period examination suggests that deposits, GDP, size, COF, NPA, inflation have a significant effect on liquidity. Post-crisis period (2010 to 2015) have a significant negative effect on liquidity. The present study contributes to the existing literature and provides an insight of the liquidity of Indian banking system. It will aid the managers in making better financial policies for the development of the Indian banking sector. Also, it will help them in understanding the areas of weakness and strengths in financial management and what variables they should consider before deciding upon the liquidity of banks. Finally this study recommends that as the liquidity is significantly important for banks, it should consider the effect of various variables on banks while taking decisions.