SIMULATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 'HUDHUD' USING SKILL SCORES OF WRF MODEL

Abstract

The North India Ocean Basin which homes the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea is said to be relatively calm zone when assessed on the basis of frequency of cyclones occurrence. But, when the statistics al)out severity m(1 daniages are collsi(lcred the SCCIlllfl() is absolute the opposite. Mtjor cyclones of North Indian Ocean that incepted in the year 201'1. were VSCS Hudhud and VSCS Nilofar. In tins study the i)rcseni Cyclone i\'Iitigition Framework of the country is analv/.e(l to UfldCrStan(l the ScOpe ol (lisastcr management in (10fl1ai11 of ('vCk)I1CS. The work also inclu(leS Post event numerical simulation of VSCS Hudhud using nicsoscaie fllo(lelliflg (\'VRF-ARW) fr pre(licting most possil)le accurate course and life history. For the purpose of simulation, five set of initial conditions i.e. 00 I '1'C of 7th October, 8th October, 9th October, 10th October and 11 di October of 2014 are selected to cover entire life span of event i.e. 7th - I 4th October, 2014. Initial and boundary con(htions are provi(led by GFS analysis field, sources being IMD-GFS and NCEP-(;FS. \7enhcation of the i'esults illustrates Direct Position Error (l)PE) erroi' to be in range of 49 Km-3 10 Km and Intensitve error between 7.6 knots- 16 knots. Perforniance of WRF-ARW was found skillful when NCE1- GFS was employed for initial and boundary condition.