EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR KANGRA-DHARAMSHALA REGION (H.P.)

Abstract

This report contains details of the methodology for evaluating ’Earthquake Loss Estimation for Kangra-Dharmshala region’, which is one of the most seismically active regions in India. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been used to estimate the probable seismic hazard and consequent losses due to earthquakes for Kangra-Dharmshala region and adjacent area by calculating interaction between the hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The area under consideration comes in zone v of zoning map of India and is one of the most seismically active regions in India. The Kangra-Dharamshala region is situated on the foothills of Shivalik and Dahuladhar mountain ranges which are mostly sedimentary ans the construction in the region is not planned and up to the mark these factors could lead to increase losses in case of an seismic event. So loss estimation for the region becomes important in order to have proper risk mitigation. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Approach (DSHA) has been used to calculate the maximum credible earthquake that could strike the region. Seismotectonic Atlas of India (GSI, 2000) and ArcGIS have been used to calculate maximum credible earthquake in the region due to different seismogenic sources. Two different Attenuation models have been used to calculate PGA value in the region. Population data have been taken from the Census 2011. Also building inventory data has been prepared for the region by using information from various sources like municipal cooperation, Socio Economic caste Census (2011),Topographical maps etc. different MBT classes have been identified in the city and capacity curve parameters for each MBT have been established for Vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability Class and Damage state definitions have been taken from various researchers (Kappos et al., 2006).Damage probabilities and Displacement demand have been calculated using SeisVARA-Spectrum software (Haldar et al., 2013). At last earthquake loss for the region has been calculated in terms of total economic losses and number of casualties for maximum PGA value in the region using SeisVARA-Spectrum. This study could be used to mitigate risk and prepare for this type of seismic event.