PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST USING APPROXIMATE SERIES TECHNIQUE

Abstract

The thesis describes the cumulant method of Probabilistic Power System Simulation using the Laguerre polynomial expansion. The Laguerre polynomial has gamma functions as its basic elements. Laguerre polynomials are used for obtaining the equivalent load . duration probability density function from cumulants representing the Load and generator outage probability density functions. In the cumulant method, the probability distributions of Load and generating unit outage capacity are represented by set of cumulants which are functions of the central moments (mean, variance etc) of the probability functions and are calculated from the chronological load and available data. In the thesis a recursive algorithm is used for calculating moments and cumulants which enables practically any number of cumulants to be used in the simulation. The cumulant method with Laguerre Series is compared with the cumulant method using Gram Charlier Series expansion, Mixture Of Normal Approximation method and Recursive method. The results of testing the method on the IEEE Reliability Test System were presented.