RIDERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR DELHI METRO CORRIDOR

Abstract

Delhi metro has been planed to reduce congestion on Delhi roads and supplement the current public transport, which are primarily buses. The government of India already invested more then 105 billion (10,500 crores) rupees for the completion of Metro phase I. But ridership on the completed phase I of the Delhi metro was 2,50,000 daily as on July 2005, which is only 11% of the initial forecast. Transit marketing officials have many general and targeted approaches available to build transit ridership. The ability to attract new riders and increase the riding frequency of existing passengers varies among different marketing approaches. Based on ridership models estimated using stated preference data, the report quantifies the relative contributions of policy variables and factors under the control of transit operators on ridership growth. In the present study, a stated preference questionnaire was designed for field study programme and household survey of commuters in Delhi were conducted using micro computer towards under-performing portions of existing metro service areas. For household survey, commuters staying along the line 3, (Blue line, Indrapastha - Dwarka sector 9) cover a distance of 32.1 Kms, were selected. A total of 300 samples were collected in the survey exclusive of pilot survey. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the switch over behaviour of commuters from bus and personalised vehicles to metro. In this dissertation work, all four attribute i.e. total travel cost, in-vehicle travel time, out-of vehicle travel time and in-vehicle crowding condition each assumes three levels. The stated preference questionnaire was designed for nine set of hypothetical choice scenarios. Due to the popularity of motorcycles in Delhi, the three modes offered were car, motorcycle, and bus (public transport). These SP data was modelled using binary logistic regression. The sensitivity analysis for each attributes was carried out for predicting revised probability of switching over to metro based on incremental logit concept as a part of application.