SCREENING-SIMULATION MODELS IN WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS PLANNING A CASE STUDY

Abstract

The study is on the combined use of analyti cal optimization and simulation models in the planning and design of a water resource system. The Tawa reservoir system being taken as a case study, analytical optimization models namely, Linear programming, Dynamic. Programming and Nonlinear Programming models, have been used to 'screen' a possible set of alternative plans and to select a small number worthy of simulation analysis. The resulting designs from the screening models were then used as input data for further evaluation by using a digital simulation model of the system. The study reveals that for existing reservoir capacity of 2.311 Mcm, the maximum annual target output for irriga--. tion that can be satisfied at 75 percent ,dependability (75% successful years) , and at 5 percent annual irrigation deficit in a year is about 1.74 Mcm as compared to the existing demand of 2.34 Mcm which incurs an annual deficit of 35 percent. The optimal return was found to be 332.22 Rs.cr ores . In this context, the results and analyses indicate considerable promise for the combined use of optimization and simulation models in the planning and design of water resources systems.